Who gains and loses if we #RedefineTheWin?
Wednesday I introduced a page comparing traditional wins and losses with those assigned by a points system proposed by Tom Tango. Tom agreed with my modification of run values, using -5 in win points...
View ArticleRotoValue Now Uses RotoWire Player News
The player news and analysis notes shown on RotoValue now come from RotoWire instead of RotoWorld. My feed provider for news, XML Team Solutions, contacted me Friday to let me know they had lost the...
View ArticleAdding More MLB Statistics
I’ve added some more basic statistics for baseball to the RotoValue system. For pitchers, I’ve added 2B allowed, 3B allowed, runs allowed, balks, and at bats against. For batters, I’ve added games...
View Article2014 Fantasy All Stars
It’s easy to find lists of the best players in fantasy baseball. Lots of people have opinions on the matter, and plenty use formulas and models to rank players. Clayton Kershaw is baseball’s best...
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2015 NBA Projections Take 1
I’ve run the first version of my 2015 NBA Stat projections. There are two versions, RotoValue and AdjRotoValue. My model starts with a weighted average of recent performance, adds regression to a...
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Tracking Injuries…
I’ve just rolled out some enhancements to RotoValue’s handling of injury reports. Now in addition to displaying reports, and highlighting the injury on player searches, I’ve added a new field, called...
View ArticlePoints-based scoring in MLB?
Tom Tango proposed a points system for MLB, allowing for ties and not using extra innings. He proposed giving each team 5 points to start. Extra inning games stayed at 5 points, treating them as a tie....
View ArticleRV Current for NBA
Similar to what I’ve done with baseball, I’m now running new projections daily for NBA players under the name RV Current. These projections add current year data into the model, increasing the weight...
View ArticleComparing 2014 Projections – wOBA
In the past three years I’ve done reviews of baseball projections systems with actual data for those systems for which I could get data. Will Larson maintains a valuable site of projections from many...
View ArticleComparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP
Yesterday I ran comparisons of several projections systems for an all-inclusive batting statistic, wOBA. Today I’m running the same tests, computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute...
View ArticleFiveThirtyEight Baseball Division Champs Puzzle
Update: I’ve added a link to the Perl progam I used to do these simulations. Oliver Roeder presents a weekly puzzler on FiveThirtyEight, and this week it was a baseball-themed puzzle. Assume a sport...
View ArticlePirate Riddler
This week’s FiveThirtyEight Riddler is a logic puzzle. Assume 10 “Perfectly Rational Pirate Logicians”. The pirates have found 10 gold pieces, and the puzzle is to figure out how they will allocate the...
View ArticleCount von Count Riddler
I periodically attempt the FiveThirtyEight Riddler, edited by Oliver Roeder. This week he’s actually presenting two, a shorter “Riddler Express”, and a more time consuming “Riddler Classic”. The Sesame...
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Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual
Tom Tango asked an interesting question on Twitter yesterday: The odds of the projected HR leader actually leading the league is an interesting question. I’ve been doing projections since 2011, so I...
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#FixTheWin
A few years back Brian Kenney introduced the hashtag #KillTheWin, which still lives on. Baseball fans point out egregious cases of a pitcher getting a win in a game despite pitching poorly. While the...
View ArticleFighting the Last War
This week’s Riddler at FiveThirtyEight reruns a puzzle initially run back in February. The game is a “war” between two warlords fighting over 10 castles. Each warlord has 100 soldiers, and the 10...
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One Player, Two Kinds of Stats: Handling Shohei Ohtani
This year the Angels signed Shohei Ohtani, the young Japanese star who played both as a pitcher and outfielder for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters of the Japanese Pacific League. As in Japan, Ohtani...
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Professional Standings Now Available on RotoValue
RotoValue now also shows professional standings for both MLB and NBA. And, like the fantasy standings pages, you can customize them to any date range you like. So if you want to see how your team has...
View ArticleReverse Platoon Splits – Before and After
Tom Tango asked someone to see what players with at least a 30-point wOBA reverse platoon split in their first 2500 plate appearances did for the rest of their careers, and Sean Foreman kindly provided...
View ArticleReviewing the FiveThirtyEight 2018 Election Forecasts
Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com published forecasts of the 2018 mid-term elections, predicting the outcome of races for House, Senate, and Governor. The site also made it easy to download their...
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